2018年4月30日4:45PM

Trump’s Decision: the JCPOA or Something Else?

In his surprise speech today, Israeli Prime Minister内塔尼亚胡介绍他所说的伊朗“核文件”,承诺提供证明,伊朗已经骗了联合行动综合规划(JCPOA),2015年外交协议更好地称为伊朗的核协议。

Instead, what he presented was a curious mix of details on the extent of Iran’s nuclear weapons program prior to 2003—all the major components of which were already publicly known and presented by the United States or the International Atomic Energy Agency—with a series of unfounded assertions about Iran wanting to continue with its nuclear program.

呈现这样似乎已经远远政治问题比什么都重要,内塔尼亚胡试图利用伊朗过去核活动的细节,认为它不能被信任的今天遵守JCPOA。因为这些细节而导致的国际制裁和交易本身的最终谈判的关键原因之一,这是特别具有讽刺意味。

Nonetheless, with President Trump rapidly approaching another key decision point on5月12日, this presentation will only add fuel to the fire. The president is widely expected to refuse to waive sanctions as required under the JCPOA, despite ongoing Iranian compliance with the deal confirmed and certified by the IAEA, the State Department, and members of hisown administration

这一切都提出了一个关键问题:5月12日之后是什么? Assuming the president does refuse to reissue sanctions waivers, the United Stateswill technicallybe in defaultof the deal, regardless of whether we formally withdraw or not. And it remains unclear whether the Trump administration has any coherent follow-through plan.

去年秋天,John Glaserand I explored this question in a Cato Policy Analysis, “非受迫性错误:对抗与伊朗的风险。” We looked past the JCPOA to ask what other policy options—if any—would be an improvement on the deal. Unfortunately, the four options we examined were all problematic: none resolved the nuclear problem, and several were astoundingly costly and dangerous. Nothing has changed to make these options more palatable in the meantime.

选项1是新的制裁措施,这似乎即使不太可行,现在的确要比去年秋天的一个选项。美国的欧洲盟友在很大程度上是不愿意加入新的制裁措施,特别是考虑特朗普的炸毁成功的核协议可能作用。

方案2是针对伊朗的代理区域军事努力。已经开始在一定程度上为特朗普政府奉行的军事集中在叙利亚和其他地方的政策。这是有风险的美军和不可能成功的。无论这种努力是否有效,但是,它无助于遏制伊朗的核潜力。

Option #3 is regime change “from within,” a favorite of Trump’s new National Security Advisor John Bolton. As we explored in the paper, there are no viable candidates for such support, and again, it does nothing to resolve the nuclear question.

第4个选项是直接的军事冲突。虽然特朗普政府似乎并没有在考虑对伊朗的大规模军事行动,这仍是一个选项,一个具有潜在灾难性的后果应该是清楚的人谁看了过去二十年美国外交政策。

在报告中,我们建议第五种选择:继续参与和补充协议的谈判,以加强和支持JCPOA现有的参数。这是迄今为止最好的成功可能性。然而正是这样的做法,特朗普可能出现丢弃,而这种做法,今天内塔尼亚胡恳求总统沟。

特朗普总统已只剩下让他担任总统的最有影响的决定之一几个星期。该JCPOA是不完美的。然而,揪现在是基于旧怨不会改善局势交易:可选项是差远了。

Read ourreport看到自己。