档案:2015年1月

你应该看看民意测验,Polls and More Poles

你应该看看是帕特里克J.的科学研究中心的一个特写。188金宝搏反恐精英迈克尔和保罗C。("“芯片”) Knappenberger.虽然本节将重点介绍我们所强调的所有感兴趣的领域,the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic. Here we post a few of the best in recent days,以及我们的色彩评论。

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除了东北暴风雪,它的global warming hype,and尸检分析,在过去的一周里,气候问题的讨论主要是民意调查……波兰人……和波兰人。

First off is a Pew 188金宝搏esportsResearch Centerpollthat found there was a growing difference between what scientists think about some"科学“issues and what the general public thinks about them.一个是过分担心的“海湾”in opinions is presented by reformed genetically modified organism (GMO) activist Mark Lynas in his article""Even in 2015,公众不信任科学家"在华盛顿邮报.在疫苗有效性等问题上,evolution,转基因食品安全,气候变化的原因,公众和科学共识之间的一致程度远低于Lynas所能接受的,他担心这一日益扩大的分歧,而这一分歧在很大程度上取决于lobbyists and activists"—has"对民主治理的严重影响。”"

这似乎有点过于戏剧化了。

What is the"correct"level of public agreement with the prevailing scientific consensus?就像怀疑论是科学家的一个重要特征一样,公众也是如此。In many cases,policy and personal decisions are based on much more than simple (known) science alone.

We suggest that the situation would be worse if the general public swallowed everything scientists say—even in the form of the prevailing"scientific consensus"-钩子,line,and sinker.

毕竟,曾经盛行的思想往往被证明是不真实的。

话题:

Loretta Lynch's Worrisome Answer on Civil Asset Forfeiture

指联邦政府的没收制度"一个重要的工具”"在打击犯罪方面,attorney general nominee Loretta Lynch staunchly defended the concept of civil asset forfeiture during the first day of her confirmation hearings.

森后Mike Lee (R-UT) questioned the"基本公平”"of Americans having their property taken by the government without any proof (or often even suspicion) of criminal wrongdoing,林奇声称过程中每一步的保障措施”to protect innocent people,"certainly implemented by [her] office … as well as an opportunity to be heard.""

即使抛开最近在全国范围内曝光的一系列联邦民事资产没收滥用事件,林奇提到她自己的办公室处理民事没收案时,特别关注。

Lynch is currently the U.S.纽约东区律师,她的办公室,尽管有保障,负责资产没收计划的一个更为公开和可疑的用途。2012年5月,赫希兄弟,joint owners of Bi-County Distributors in Long Island,让他们的整个银行账户被国税局和林奇的办公室一起使用。Many of Bi-County's customers paid in cash,and when the brothers made several deposits under $10,000,federal agents accused them of"“结构化”their deposits in order to avoid the reporting requirements of the Bank Secrecy Act.没有那么多刑事指控,联邦政府清空了账户,共计446美元,651.11。

两年多以来,不顾2000年《民事资产没收改革法》规定的启动程序的60天期限,Lynch's office simply sat on the money while the Hirsch brothers survived off the goodwill their business had engendered with its vendors over the decades.

Expand Trade by Repealing Monopoly Unionism

共和党人说,他们支持削减法规以刺激经济增长和创造就业机会。他们普遍赞成扩大国际贸易。They can attain those goals by reforming labor union laws.

美国西海岸的海港正遭受侵略性工会主义的打击。The damage spreads out across the economy during labor disputes,affecting billions of dollars worth of trade.这是一个经济上荒谬的情况,and it's hugely unfair to the millions of workers whose jobs depend on trade.It should not be happening in America in the 21th century.

在她official response to President Obama's SOTU,new GOP senator Joni Ernst (Iowa) said,"让我们消除欧洲和太平洋地区的贸易壁垒。Let's sell more of what we make and grow in America over there so we can boost manufacturing,工资,and jobs right here,在家里。”"

她是对的,and she should use her prestige and tough-gal credentials to push for change.In the 1980s,Margaret Thatcher broke the militant unions in Britain and she privatized most of that nation's seaports.参议员恩斯特有机会在这里推动同样的改革。

The key to union reform is repealing the 1935 National Labor Relations Act,also called the Wagner Act.“那是强加的行为”集体谈判,"which is a euphemism for monopoly unionism.垄断工会主义与个人权利不相容,它鼓励工会破坏工作场所.在美国,私营部门的工会化率降至7%。but where it persists it causes major damage.

这就把我们带到了西海岸的海港。TheWall Street Journalreports:

The labor dispute that has magnified snarls at U.S.西海岸的港口可能正处于定居的边缘,但要结束这种普遍的痛苦需要几个月的时间,货运中断,and losses caused by the massive cargo traffic jam.

The near-paralysis at the ports is rippling through the economy.铁路正在减少对西海岸的服务。Cargo ships have slowed down—and even turned around—as containers have stacked up at the ports.肉类工业贸易集团的一位官员上周表示,港口的僵局导致肉禽公司每周损失超过3000万美元。

… Neely Mallory III,president of Mallory Alexander International Logistics in Memphis … is having trouble getting railroads to take loads west from Memphis,Dallas or Chicago,because they are reducing service to the ports until the congestion clears.他不能安排出口超过10个,500 containers of cotton.上星期五,a ship due in with imports for his customers gave up,他说。它将避开美国。30天。"这是毁灭性的,"他补充说。

Manufacturers also are feeling the pain.美国国家制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers)从成员国获悉,近几个月来通过西海岸港口的集装箱运输已成为incredibly erratic,"said Robyn Boerstling,director of transportation and infrastructure policy for the trade group."每个人都感到非常不安和沮丧,"她说。Companies fear that if they can't deliver on orders it will be very hard to win business back,她说。

NAM said a small U.S.纸浆和造纸制造商告诉它,过去几个月,该公司向中国出口的纸浆损失了约100万美元,因为它不能按时交货,或者客户担心它可能无法按时交货。FastenalCo.,位于维诺纳的工业和建筑用品分销商,Minn.,说一些螺丝交付,来自亚洲的钉子和其他紧固件被推迟一两周,forcing it and some customers to hold larger inventories.

更多关于西海岸海港的信息,看见here.

话题:

Cutting Spending Is the Best Approach

星期一,the White House will release President Obama's budget proposal for Fiscal Year 2016.预计总统将重新强调他以前的财政方法,即增加支出和增加税收,同时完全忽视了国家的长期财政问题。

一个新的188金宝搏反恐精英由国家经济研究局(NBER)出版,提供了解决这些问题的最佳方法的证据,188金宝搏esportsshould the president decide to tackle the nation's fiscal mess.The 188金宝搏反恐精英study,阿尔贝托·阿莱西纳,Omar Barbiero,and others,tries to answer one central question: What is the best way for a country to rebalance policy to solve a fiscal crisis??

本研究着188金宝搏反恐精英眼于经济合作与发展组织成员国及其对2009-2013年金融危机的应对。Following the crisis,many of those countries became burdened by large amounts of debt and deficit as a result of rising spending and falling revenues.Government spending grew to an average of 43 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) within the European Union.

随着财政危机的临近,许多国家转向所谓的austerity"measures in order to promote economic growth.一些国家采取了旨在增加收入以弥补预算缺口的政策,while others focused spending cuts.188金宝搏esportsResearchers distinguished between fiscal plans based on spending cuts and those based upon tax increases.

The 188金宝搏esportsresearchers found that spending cuts,不是增税,are the best way to resolve a fiscal crisis.According to the 188金宝搏esportsresearchers,"基于削减开支的财政调整似乎成本更低,就产量损失而言,而不是那些基于增税的。”Tax-based fiscal plans are an inefficient solution to fiscal problems in the long-term.An average tax-based plan with a size of 1 percent of total GDP was shown to shrink the economy by almost twice that amount over the next three years.

NBER的研究为不188金宝搏反恐精英同类型的财政调整计划的有效性提供了有价值的见解。强调削减开支的财政计划在长期促进经济增长方面更为成功。

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感谢克里斯蒂娜·佩佩在这篇文章上的出色研究协助。188金宝搏esports

Ignorance of Economics Is No Excuse

新的西班牙左翼政党波德莫斯从希腊的叙利亚胜利中获得了巨大的灵感。ASNPR reports:

上周末一个反紧缩党在希腊赢得选举后,欧洲大部分国家都在密切关注希腊。西班牙人特别关注希腊,因为希腊可能具有影响力。类似的新政党——左翼,反政府组织——在过去的一年里已经在西班牙形成。民调显示,它可能在今年秋天的选举中赢得权力。

如果选举了podemos,Spaniards may be disappointed in the results.Consider the cognitive dissonance here:

Many Spaniards are … frustrated that while the economy here is growing,unemployment still tops 23 percent and double that for youth.民意调查显示,选民们正在转向播客。It promises to raise the minimum wage,提高富人的税收,重新评估西班牙是否应该偿还债务。

Making it more expensive to hire workers and reducing the return on investment don't seem like policies designed to deal with Spain's appalling unemployment problem.在过去20年的大部分时间里,欧洲的失业率高于美国。In 2004,经济学家威廉B。康奈尔suggested some reasons为此:更长更慷慨的失业救济金,reducing the incentive to find a job;不灵活的工资;and job protections that make businesses reluctant to hire workers whom they won't be able to let go.The economist Mark Perryreportsthat the unemployment rate in European countries with a minimum wage is twice as high as in countries with no minimum wage.And minimum wage laws certainly seem toreduce youth employment.

Senate Passes Bill to Approve Keystone XL Pipeline

Today,in a 62-36 vote,美国Senate passed a bill to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.The House passed a similar measure a few weeks ago.These actions come more than 6 years after TransCanada Corp originally submitted its application to the State Department to build a pipeline linking the Alberta oil sands to refineries along the U.S.墨西哥湾沿岸。

Did I say State Department??

Yep,在涉及跨越国际边界的事项中(在这种情况下是与加拿大的边界),国务院必须决定该项目是否在国家利益。”Two-thousand,三百二十三天后,国务院的最高领导人仍然没有下定决心。

所以国会试图为他做决定。

But it probably won't work.

奥巴马总统已经宣布他计划否决这项措施,因为,well,because the State Department already has a procedure in place to handle cross border pipeline projects like this one.

事实上,this procedure has worked flawlessly up until the Keystone XL pipeline.  The previous cross-border pipeline that was proposed—the Alberta Clipper in 2007—was approved in just over two years.At the time,the State Department用发光的术语写的关于这个项目,赞扬它的进步”战略利益,"being a"积极的经济信号”and adding that"reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are best addressed through each country's robust domestic policies.""

话题:

油价暴跌不会导致俄罗斯或伊朗投降。

The recent dramatic drop in global oil prices has significant geopolitical as well as economic implications.  Consumers in the United States and other countries enjoy substantial savings,而边际生产者,无论是在这里还是在国外,发现他们的利润率严重缩水。阿斯派尼亚在线,some of the oil-producing states that have been especially hard hit include Russia,委内瑞拉以及伊朗。所有这些国家都由与美国关系恶劣的政权统治,so there is a temptation among American political leaders and pundits to relish the current discomfort of those governments.

更大的限制是必要的。当前低迷的定价环境给美国带来的地缘政治利益并非微不足道。经济约束的增加似乎是一个因素,使伊朗的文职政权更愿意就伊朗的核计划进行认真的谈判。委内瑞拉已经拥有了大量的资金。悲哀,caused by the leftist government's chronic economic mismanagement since the late 1990s,使该国成为拉丁美洲其他国家不那么吸引人的政治模式华盛顿对左派的担忧”Bolivarian“席卷该地区的革命,就在几年前,已经明显褪色了。

The Obama administration is especially pleased about how lower oil prices are putting pressure on Vladimir Putin's government.  Although Western economic sanctions,在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后,解释了该国的一些困境,油价的急剧下跌(布伦特原油现在的售价低于每桶50美元)是一个更重要的因素。卢布不仅缩水了50%以上,俄罗斯政府面临着一场危机的预算紧缩。officials hope that the growing financial and economic discomfort will compel Putin to make major foreign policy concessions.

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